At the end of 2017, I made my predictions for 2018. Although I got a couple of things wrong, I was surprisingly accurate.
Since the point of this exercise is to prove how wrong we can all be, I need to do the same exercise for 2019 with the hope that I get more things wrong. I encourage you to make predictions in the comments. It's a humbling experience.
Here are seven predictions of what I think we'll witness in 2019:
1. Donald Trump will NOT be impeached
Yes, this contradicts the prediction I made after the first 100 days of his administration and that I repeated at the end of 2017. Those original predictions were based on my assumption that there would be a huge backlash in the 2018 midterm elections, which would turn the entire Congress to the Democratic side. Instead, the Senate remained under Republican control. As a result, the Democrats won't get the votes to give Trump the boot unless he grabs Andrea Merkel by the pussy.
VERDICT: It's as wishy-washy as my predictions. In 2016 and 2017, I predicted that he would be impeached. In 2018, I predicted that he would NOT be impeached. As of December 2019, the US House of Representatives has impeached him, but that campaign will fail when it lands in the Senate.
CLARIFICATION: When I made all my impeachment predictions, I was defining "impeachment" by "getting kicked out of office." Technically, that's not the official definition of impeachment. In fact, all three presidents that have been impeached (Johnson, Clinton, and Trump) did not leave office before the end of their term. Nixon was NOT impeached, but he did resign prior to his term ending. In short, I should have researched the definition of impeachment before making predictions about it! Ironically, I should have stuck with my original prediction.
2. Bitcoin will double in value in 2019
My Bitcoin prediction in 2017 was surprisingly close to reality. I predicted that it would lose about 80% of its value and it did. I was lucky. Let's see if I can get lucky again.
I predict that Bitcoin it will go from $3,650 (its price on Dec 31, 2018) to over $7,300 by the end of 2019. If the Bitcoin ETF happens in 2019 (and I think it will), Bitcoin might pass $10,000 again. I'll give more cryptocurrency predictions later.
VERDICT: I nailed it again!
Wow. My bitcoin predictions have been crazy accurate. I predicted it would end "above $7,300" - and on December 28, 2019, it's at $7,333! I also predicted that "Bitcoin might pass $10,000 again." In 2019, it spurted to $13,000.
I suggested that one reason for that spurt would be because of the bitcoin ETF. Although the ETF hasn't come yet, the price still had a spike. Now the pressure is to see if I can nail three BTC predictions in a row....
3. The S&P 500 will gain over 15%
It's about 2,500 at the end of 2018. So it should be over 2,875 by the end of 2019.
VERDICT: I underestimated how well the S&P would do. It ended at 3,240. That's a 29% rise!
4. Cyril Ramaphosa will win the 2019 Presidential Election in South Africa
It will take at least 20 years and much suffering for the black majority to vote the ANC out of power. Blacks in South Africa are more loyal to the ANC than blacks in America are loyal to the Democrats. Getting the South African blacks to vote for a non-ANC party is about as easy as getting someone to change religions.
VERDICT: I was right.
5. Atiku Abubakar will win Nigeria's 2019 Presidential election
He'll kick Buhari out of power. It will be relatively peaceful. And Abubakar will be just as incompetent and ineffective as his predecessor. Nigeria will continue its lackluster performance, despite....
VERDICT: I was wrong. Buhari won.
6. A barrel of petroleum will go up 25% in price
At the end of 2018, a barrel of petroleum costs $45. The stock USO costs $9.66 per share. Both of those prices will go up at least 25%.
VERDICT: I was right:
- USO ended 2019 at $12.91, which is a 33% rise.
- A barrel of petrol went up 36%, finishing the year at $61.72.
7. I will finish The Unseen Africa book
I've written 15 out of 54 Chapters. I hope to put out one per week!
VERDICT: Totally wrong! I only have 20 out of 54 Chapters done. I failed!
What are your 2019 predictions?
Put them in the comments below!
CONCLUSION: All my financial predictions were correct, especially bitcoin and the price of petroleum. Even the S&P 500 prediction was in the right direction - I was quite right to be bullish. For politics, it was a mixed bag. And for the subject I had the most control over (my own book), I was utterly wrong. How humbling.
WHY ARE MY FINANCIAL PREDICTIONS ACCURATE: It's not because I went to Harvard Business School. They don't focus on forecasting. They should. I'm often right because I look for cycles. Things like Bitcoin, the stock market, and petroleum have ups and downs. When they have severe up (or down), there's a strong chance that it will ultimately swing back the other way. The greater delta (the change), the more likely it will swing violently the other way.
Look at my predictions for 2020 and the 2020s!
