Before you look at these predictions, you should see how accurate my 7 predictions for 2019 were.

In 2020...

Blue boxes have the verdict to see how I did.

1. Bitcoin will end 2020 above $10,000.

Unlike my previous two bitcoin predictions which were perfect (the 80% decline in 2018 followed by the 100% rise in 2019), I'm unsure about 2020. As you will see in my 2030 predictions, I'm bullish long-term for bitcoin, but 2020 is a bit fuzzy.

As of December 31, 2019, Bitcoin stands at around $7,300.

There's a 30% chance that it will soar over $20,000 by the end of 2020.

On the other hand, after doubling in 2019, it could also be due for a pullback in 2020. There's a 40% chance that it end between $6,000 and $10,000. 

Since I believe there's no chance that it will end below $6,000, then that means it's 60% likely that it will be over $10,000 by the end of 2020.

One thing is almost certain: 2020 will once again see some volatility from bitcoin, as usual. But I expect a healthy gain overall.

April 25, 2020 status report: the volatility has certainly been there so far this year. It fell below $4,000 briefly and now it's back to where it was on January 1, around $7,300. The famous halving event is one month away from happening. Usually, that augurs a price rise.

VERDICT: Correct. My 30% chance that it will go above $20k was right since it finished 2020 at $28,000.

2. Mayor Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination.

At the end of 2019, according to Real Clear Politics, Biden has a solid lead nationally and in Nevada and South Carolina. He also leads in the betting odds. 

Here's why I think the dark horse Buttigieg will win the nomination.

First, he has a good chance of winning Iowa and New Hampshire. Even if he doesn't, he may come in second place. 

Regardless, he'll get a ton of attention from those finishes. That includes attention from Nevada and South Carolina. Once voters from those two states start taking Mayor Pete seriously, he'll move up in the polls of those two states (and others). 

Mayor Bloomberg and Biden are both focusing on the marathon; they're willing to give up some wins at the start and they're banking that they can catch up later.

On the other hand, momentum is important. 

The other thing that is important is what I call the Mirror Image Theory. I discuss that idea more in the last 30 minutes of my WanderLearn podcast with Sym Blanchard.

Simply put, incoming US Presidents are often mirror images (opposites) of the outgoing President. Just look at the 7 elected presidents. We swing back and forth. 

So what's the most opposite of Trump?

It ain't old-timers like Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

It's Buttigieg.

VERDICT: I was wrong. Although Buttigieg won the Iowa primary and came second in New Hampshire, he dropped out in April 2020 to help Biden win the nomination.

3. Trump will lose the 2020 Election. 

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will inspire the lazy voters who sat on their asses in 2016 thinking that Hillary was a shoo-in. 

The only opponents of Trump that have a good chance of beating are the "socialist" ones (Sanders and Warren). 

VERDICT: Correct, unless you are a sucker for conspiracy theories. 

4. The US GDP will slide into negative territory (a recession) in the second half of 2020.

The US economy has had a nice long run. It will take a break.

VERDICT: Almost right. the GDP in the 2Q 2020 dropped 31%!

5. The S&P 500 will have a flat year. 

The S&P is around 3,250 now and it will end 2020 around the same place, plus or minus 3%.

VERDICT: Wrong! It went up 15.5%.

By 2030...

1. One bitcoin will be worth more than $100,000.

I'm not positive about this. Here's how I break down the odds:

• 60% chance that Bitcoin will be worth over $100,000. 
• 30% chance that Bitcoin will be worth between $30,000 to $100,000 (at least 10% annualized return)
• 5% chance that Bitcoin will be worth between $8,000 and $30,000.
• 5% chance that it will be worth less than today.

Why? 

Because Bitcoin today is like the internet in the 1990s: although many people have heard of it, only early adopters and other geeks have it. Once the whole planet learns about it, you'll have a spike in demand, but the supply at this point is effectively fixed. That will result in a price spike. 

No other good is like bitcoin. If there's a surge in demand for housing, we can build more houses. If people love avocados, we can plant more avocados. If everyone wants gold, we can dig out more gold (or see how accurate my 7 predictions for 2019 were). 

Moreover, from a long-term monetary perspective, the US and Europe haven't had high inflation since the 1970s.

We're due.

But this time, the supremacy of the US dollar may not weather the storm as well as it survived the 1970s.

China and other powers will unseat the USD as the sole global reserve currency this time. A basket of currencies may take over.

In the 2020s, some countries will hold some of their reserves in bitcoin. They will shift away some of their US treasury bills and adopt bitcoin - not completely, but partially. Just like they will hold some euro, yen, and Swiss francs.

The only reason bitcoin may become worthless is if most significant governments collude to ban it and push it underground, thereby criminalizing it.

However, even that won't make it completely worthless. Cocaine is illegal everywhere, but it has tremendous value in the black market. And bitcoin is easier to trade than cocaine.

As one bitcoin analyst said, "In this century, Bitcoin is either heading toward $1 million or to zero. It's highly unlikely that in 2050, the price of bitcoin will be where it is today."

2022 Update: In 2021, many bitcoin bulls thought we would hit $100,000. The same goes for 2022. Although BTC could hit $400k in this decade, I would not be surprised if, by the end of the decade, there is a pullback back to $100k. As optimistic as my 2030 forecast is, if you want more hopium, consider this guy who thinks BTC will be $10 million by 2029!

2. The CPI will show that the USA experiences double-digit inflation sometime in this decade.

Maybe it will be in 2025, but at some point in the 2020s, the CPI (which measures inflation) will soar above 10% for the first time since 1982.

2023 Update: In June 2022, we hit 9.1% inflation. We have 7 more years to see if we get higher.

3. One ounce of gold will be worth over $5,000.

It's about $1,500 at the end of 2019.

2023 Update: We're at $1,800 in January 2023. I drew the chart below to illustrate how far gold will have to climb to make my prediction (the orange circle). Assuming it follows the century-old channel, it would have to be near the channel's top for my prediction to be accurate. Therefore, I've lost confidence in my prediction. A $3,000 price by 2030 is in the middle of the historical channel and is a more realistic price target.

On the other hand, I predicted that the 2020s would see higher-than-normal inflation, which is why I made the $5k prediction in the first place. Therefore, let's see how it plays out.

4. Syria will be a hot tourist destination.

Expect that over 20 million tourists will visit Syria in the 2020s.

5. China will undergo a revolution.

Here are my odds:

• 70% chance that the communist party will finally fall or be substantially weakened.
• 20% chance that China will reverse course and becomes far more authoritarian.
• 10% chance that little changes.

6. North Korea finally gets freedom.

It can't remain the least free place in the world forever. 

7. The USA will have its first female president.

They have three chances to pull that off in the 2020s: 2020, 2024, and 2028.

When will we get our first atheist President?

It seems that we'll get a gay Muslim before that happens.

8. South Africa's GDP per capita ranking will fall.

Right now, South Africa has the 7th highest GDP per capita in Africa.

I predict that in the 2020s, their ranking will drop to 8th or 9th. Namibia and/or Algeria will pass it. Its long-term fall from the #1 position in the continent will continue.

9. Facebook will be less important and powerful than it is today.

Facebook will still be a major player, just like AT&T, IBM, GM, and Microsoft are important corporations today. However, just like those four companies are no longer in their prime, Facebook will also have a relative decline. 

I wish I could have a metric to measure this, but I think it will be pretty obvious whether I'm right or wrong. 

Indeed, it's likely that Google, Amazon, and Netflix will all struggle with new rivals. But I think Facebook is the most vulnerable.

Today, at least one small company nobody knows will become a household name in 2030. I wish I knew what company that is!

10. We will land humans on Mars.

But they will die there.

2023 Update: After studying the issue more, I'm sure this prediction will be wrong. I made this prediction at the end of 2019 based on Elon Musk's 2016 prediction of getting humans on Mars by 2026. I knew that was too optimistic, but I figured that he'd hurry a mission in 2029, three years behind his aggressive schedule. In 2022, Musk suggested 2029 is possible. I figured that to achieve a Mars landing in this decade, they would have to cut corners, which will lead to humans dying on Mars in 2029. However, now I'm starting to doubt that humans will land on Mars in the 2030s! 

11. I will have visited all the countries in the world

I've visited 123 out of 193 now. It would be easy to visit the remaining 70 countries. That's just 7 countries per year.

However, what slows me down is my silly desire to write books about it. Here's the rough plan:

• 2020-2022: West and Central Asia
• 2023-2026: East Asia
• 2027-2030: Oceania, Caribbean, and South America.