In my Annual Prediction Show, I review last year's predictions before making my new predictions.

Here are my 2024 Predictions

Video

Podcast

2025 update: I score my predictions below, giving myself two half-points, earning me 5 out of 10 possible points. Mediocre accuracy this year! A good predictor gets at least 60% correct.

1. Trump loses the nomination

Yes, this prediction is almost as crazy as saying in 2015 that Donald Trump would be the next US President. Few believed that back then, and everyone assumes he will be the nominee in 2024. However, almost every election has at least one surprise, and I'm betting this will be the big surprise. I have low confidence in this prediction.

VERDICT: WRONG!

2. Republicans nominate Nikki Haley, not Trump

Who will represent the Republicans if Trump doesn't? Nikki Haley because Ron DeSantis lost his momentum. She is light years behind Trump, but if anyone can beat Trump, Haley can.

VERDICT: WRONG!

3. The Republican defeats Joe Biden

This prediction implies that Joe Biden will win the nomination, not Gavin Newsom (who would be a better candidate) or any other Democrat. If Trump runs against Biden, Biden might win. But any other Republican will defeat Biden.

VERDICT: MOSTLY WRONG! Biden wasn't the Democratic nominee. 

4. Australian flooding will kill at least 50 

This is a conservative prediction. Deaths could easily be in the hundreds.

VERDICT: CORRECT! 200+ DIED.

5. Bitcoin doubles in value during a year of a halving

It will go above $80,000 during 2024 but won't close above $80,000.

VERDICT: HALF RIGHT. It closed around $93,000.

6. Ethereum closes at $3333

Because everyone expects a bullish crypto year, I'm nervous that the crowd will (once again) be wrong. Still, it's hard to believe Ethereum will lose value this year, even with assaults from Solana and Bitcoin. Therefore, I'm making a moderately bullish prediction. I won't be surprised if Ethereum reaches $5000 at some point.

VERDICT: CORRECT! On December 27, 2024, Ethereum closed at $3,349. Nearly perfect! Meanwhile, its high point was $4,868, nearly touching the $5,000 I predicted!

7. S&P climbs 7%

After a profitable 2023, the US stock market will likely cool off. Although a recession is priced in, not much other bad news is. Expect a modest year.

VERDICT: WRONG! I was off by 20%! It went up 27%!

8. ANC will lose the majority of seats for the first time in 30 years

After spending 3 months in South Africa in 2023, it's clear that South Africans are fed up with the ANC more than ever. The main problem is that the opposition is fractured. A sloppy, chaotic coalition government will emerge with the ANC still the top dog despite its lack of majority.

VERDICT: CORRECT! The ANC won only 40% of the vote, down from 57% in 2019. 

9. Jimmy Carter dies

He's been in a hospice for nearly a year. His wife died in November 2023. I hope I'm wrong, but let's appreciate his final months.

VERDICT: CORRECT! I'm sad to report that I was right. Carter died on December 29, 2024! It was remarkable timing. I recorded and uploaded the video on December 27 because I didn't want to lug my gear to Dalat, Vietnam, where I would celebrate the New Year. I figured nothing would change in the last 4 days of the year; I was wrong, which made this prediction right. 

10. I finish the manuscript of The Unseen Africa

VERDICT: WRONG! Only 60% done.

I've been saying this often, but now I'm super determined. Plus, I finished the dreaded South Africa chapter, so it should be clean sailing for the next half of the book!

Previous predictions

To see my previous forecasts, check out my predictions for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.

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