I'm often wrong. It's amazing how uncommon it is to find humans who are willing to admit that they were wrong about something. We all know that nobody is perfect and that everyone makes mistakes. However, it's stunning how rare it is to find someone who easily and regularly admits to being wrong.
Even when the evidence is irrefutable, so many people will still deny it and stubbornly cling to the idea that they were right.
At best, they will simply grumble and walk away. Humans will almost never utter these simple words, "I was wrong."
In 2017, I read a fun book called But What If We're Wrong?
I highly recommend reading the hilarious beginning of the book (which is free to sample on Amazon). The book loses steam as it progresses but the beginning is brilliant and funny.
In an effort to remind myself how wrong I can be, I will make some predictions for 2018.
Lots of people like to say, "I told you so," but they're highly selective about what they remember. "I knew Bitcoin was going to rise in 2017!" Yes, but what about all the other stupid things you predicted that didn't go well? If you're Nostradamus, why aren't you rich?
8 predictions for 2018
At the end of 2018, I rated my performance. I gave myself one point if I was mostly right and half a point if I was half right and no points if I was wrong.
1) Bitcoin will finish the year lower than it started. It's about $14,500 at the end of 2017. I'm bullish for the long-term for cryptocurrencies. I bought Bitcoin when it was $250. But if 2017 was the breakout year for cryptocurrencies, 2018 will be the breakdown year. I prefer not making a more precise prediction than that. OK, fine. You want me to be wrong? I'm always happy to admit that I'm wrong. I'll guarantee that I'll be wrong by making a prediction that Bitcoin will be worth $4,444 by the end of 2018.
Reality: My prediction was surprisingly close! Toward the end of November 2018, Bitcoin crossed $4,444 - and kept falling to $3,200. That's where I started buying bitcoin. I'm impressed that I bought it on the floor because it went over $4,000 in less than a month. On December 31, 2018, Bitcoin closed at $3,884, which is remarkably close to my $4,444 prediction. Of all my predictions, I'm most proud of this one because last year, when Bitcoin was at $14,500, most people thought it would either be higher in one year or go to zero. It would end up nearly touching $20,000 in early 2018. Still, I calculated that it would drop 80-90% because that's what it has done in the past. Call me lucky. Score: 1 point.
2) Russia will have political upheaval in the 2nd half of 2018. Putin's winning streak will come to an end. Although he will still remain in power, he will face more challenges than he has ever faced. For the first time in his 20-year reign, he will have more Russians disapproving of him than approving of him.
Reality: I was wrong about some predictions: Russia did not see a wave of protests in 2018; most Russians still approve of Putin. However, I was right that he stayed in power. Also, his approval is "at an all-time low" and most Russians don't trust him now. Score: 0.5 points.
3) Egypt will have another wave of protests. Tahir Square will make the headlines again. After spending a month in Egypt in December 2017, it seems the population is ripe for another minor uprising. But Sisi will remain in power.
Result: I was mostly right. On June 30, 2018, there was a mass protest in Egypt and Sisi remains in power. Score: 1 point.
4) Zimbabwe will see practically no improvement. Emmerson Mnangagwa will "win" the 2018 election by rigging it as he always did for Mugabe. The policies of the 76-year-old man will differ little from his mentor Mugabe, who will die in 2018. Zimbabwe will go nowhere. It can't get much worse, right? I'm probably wrong about that too.
Result: I was mostly right again. By the end of 2018, little had changed in Zimbabwe. It's still a mess. The only thing I was wrong about was that Mugabe didn't die as I predicted. He'll be 95 in February 2019. Score: 1 point.
See video summary:
5) Cyril Ramaphosa will oust the current South African president, Jacob Zuma, and boldly continue the country's lackluster leadership ever since Mandela left. Although some things have improved in South Africa for the last 20 years, it has consistently disappointed most people. It won't go the way of Zimbabwe, but it will try.
Result: Just like I correctly predicted the Zimbabwe election, I got South Africa's election correct too. Score: 1 point.
6) Trump will be impeached in 2019. I know these are just 2018 predictions, but I just want to double-down on the prediction I made after Trump's first 100 days: that he would be impeached in 2019.
Result: N/A. However, I'm sure that I'll be wrong about this. I made this prediction thinking that the Democrats would win the Congress in the 2018 midterms. They didn't win the Senate.
7) The stock market will suffer a 20% decline. The Dow Jones is around 25,000 at the end of 2017. It will revisit 20,000 in 2018.
Result: I was mostly right! On Xmas Eve 2018, the Dow Jones was 21,792. That's not 20,000, but pretty close. And the S&P fell 20% off its highs while the NASDAQ saw a 22% decline from its 2018 highs. Score: 1 point.
8) A Kenyan will run a marathon in less than two hours. It's never been done before. And if it's not a Kenyan, it will be another East African.
Result: Wrong. A Kenyan got within 25 seconds of two hours. However, in October 2019, a Kenyan did run a marathon at 1:59:40 (see video). Score: 0.
Three personal predictions for 2018
1) I'll finish half of my book, The Unseen Africa. I really wanted to predict that I will write one chapter per week. If I did that, the book would be done by the end of 2018. However, I know that it's just unrealistic. So I predict that at least 25 chapters will be presentable to my Beta Readers.
Result: Wrong. I only got 15 chapters done.
2) I'll re-start the WanderLearn Podcast. It's been dormant for about 7 years but I'd like to restart it in 2018.
Result: Correct!
3) I'll leave Africa for the first time in over 5 years. I predict that I will visit Europe in the summer of 2018 and then in August 2018, I'll return to the USA after a 5.5-year absence. I'll see my mom for the first time in 5+ years. I'll celebrate by going to Burning Man on August 27, which is Rejoice's 26th birthday. Of course, the USA immigration may refuse Rejoice's visa in which case I'll be stuck in Africa. And I'll have the glory of admitting that I was wrong again!
Result: Correct, although we didn't go to Burning Man.
What will you be wrong about in 2018?
Now it's your turn to practice saying, "I was wrong." C'mon, you can do it. Make your predictions for 2018 in the comments below so that in 2019 you can say "I was wrong!"
Of course, I suspect nobody will have the guts to make a serious prediction. People will either not make a prediction or they'll make silly or obvious predictions. Let's hope I'm wrong about that too!
