WanderLearn Podcast

• Advice
• Cryptocurrency

UPDATE: I wrote this article in early 2020 but updated a bit in mid-2024.

There is a US election, the World Cup, and the Olympics every four years. They don't all happen in the same year, but they each have a four-year cycle.

Today, there's another event that happens once every year that few talk about: the Bitcoin halving.

To celebrate, I'll give a simplified explanation of what the halving is and why it's significant.

Afterward, I will turn to a more fundamental question: why is Bitcoin (BTC) worth more than a dollar, and why do I keep talking about it given that I'm mostly known for my travels?

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• Advice
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As of today (May 11, 2020), 80,000 Americans have died from COVID-19.

In 2018, 80,000 Americans died of the flu. It was a bad flu year.

It's fascinating how we look at death.

The Infection Fatality Rate of COVID-19 is about 10 times worse than influenza. 

Therefore, if we didn't shelter in place, perhaps we would have lost 10x more Americans than the 2018 flu season, which would mean about 1 million deaths.

I've been called callous. But imagine if:

1. We treated airline flights like rocket launches - and took 7 hours to go through all the safety checks.
2. We set a 10 MPH speed limit nationwide.
3. We mandated a nonstop shelter in place to stop the 5 million deaths from communicable diseases. 

Such draconian measures would save thousands of lives. But would you be in favor of them?

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• Advice
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• Cryptocurrency

I love Bitcoin. Nothing would make me happier than to see one of Plan B's optimistic stock-to-flow (S2F/STF) models become an accurate predictor of Bitcoin's price.

Up until now, there has been a non-spurious relationship between stock-to-flow and bitcoin's price. That's one reason it's such a compelling narrative.

I hope I'm wrong, but, inevitably, BTC's stock-to-flow models will diverge dramatically from their predicted trendline. This article doesn't distinguish between the original S2F model and the latest S2FX model since they share a similar concept.

I am writing this while the world is counting down the hours to bitcoin's third halving, which will occur on May 12, 2020. BTC costs nearly $9,000.

EDIT/UPDATE: Jump to my annual updates, where I reflect on how bitcoin's price has performed since writing this article - and I look ahead to 2024 and beyond. This article is still worth reading and relevant because the 8 flaws still exist in Plan B's stock-to-flow model.

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• Podcast
• Cryptocurrency

When I travel, I love to observe common ground in a sea of diversity.

The planet has over 100 currencies, but there's one thing that everyone agrees is money: gold.

So far, COVID-19 has killed 200,000, which has added to the 5 million deaths that we suffer from communicable diseases every year.

COVID-19 has also killed the global economy.

The travel industry has shut down.

The stock market is in tatters.

The prices of panic assets (gold and bitcoin) have soared.

Few are talking about a recession.

We're on the edge of a depression.

Therefore, we're taking a breaking from talking about travel and focusing on universal money: gold.

I talk with a renowned gold researcher, Jan Nieuwenhuijs.

 We discuss:

• Whether gold's stock-to-flow ratio helps determine gold's price.
• What he thinks of bitcoin using the stock-to-flow to predict bitcoin's price.
• Why he bought bitcoin for $25 and why he sold it in 2017.
• What he thinks of asteroid mining.
• How do buy and store gold safely and effectively.

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• Advice
• Podcast
• Cryptocurrency

Last week, I got this email from Robert Hahn, whom I interviewed a few months ago on this podcast. He wrote:

Hey Francis! I listened to your most recent podcast with Rejoice. Afterwards I looked into investing in crypto a bit. I was wondering what your thoughts are on platforms for buying and storing the virtual currency. I was also interested in Nano (for its more environmentally conscious approach) and Monero (better privacy, but that may be a fault because it makes it a favorite for dark money). I'd be curious to hear why you chose Bitcoin...the assumption that widespread adoption will win the race?

Best Crypto Exchanges for US Citizens

For the best platform for buying cryptocurrency, I like Kraken.

The main problem with Kraken is that you can only fund your account with a bank wire transfer, which often costs $30-50. That only makes sense if you buy tens of thousands of crypto dollars.

Kraken used to offer free ACH bank transfers, but chargeback fees were killing them, so they stopped offering ACH.

Coinbase Coinbase also allows free ACH bank transfers. However, ACH transfers take about 2 weeks to complete on Coinbase, so they're bad if you're in a hurry.

CEX.io claims to offer ACH transfers, but when I tried to open an account with them, I found their interface and customer service abysmal. These Brits are not hungry for business. 

Coinbase and other exchanges let you fund your account with a credit card (albeit with high fees). 

Similarly, you can buy Bitcoin via Bitcoin ATMs, which are easy to find in major cities. However, once again, they usually slam you with high fees.  

Where to store your crypto

For storage beyond what you're comfortable losing, Ledger is a great bet.

However, a Ledger costs $60-120, so that doesn't make sense if you're buying less than $1000.

In that case, use a smartphone app and back up your private keys (your 12-24 word seed phrase).

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