As usual, I avoid unquantifiable predictions. For example, these are all vague predictions for 2022:

Emerging COVID-19 variants will jeopardize our return to normalcy
Interest rate hikes wreak havoc in our debt-heavy world
The global supply chain continues to strain due to unforeseen events and sky-high costs
Geopolitical tensions cause jitters in the global markets

If you can't measure it, it can be hard to definitely say if you're right or wrong.

Here we go: It's either in podcast or video form.

Podcast

Video

00:00 How my Six 2021 Predictions Fared
05:10 Bitcoin $75k
06:20 Inflation = 10%
06:40 Fed Funds Rate 1%
07:00 Stocks down 5%
07:50 Webb works!
08:05 No Flippening
08:30 ETH $5k
09:30 Plan B makes Plan C

9 Predictions

1. Bitcoin ends 2022 at $75,000.

Four years ago, I began making annual predictions on bitcoin's price. I've been correct every time, twice within a couple of percentage points.

In 2022, I'll make a video that explains my prediction methodology.

I'll be the first one to admit that luck is a huge factor. I know that one day I will be spectacularly wrong. I'm surprised that I have lasted 4 years and not been horribly wrong. Maybe my luck will run out in 2022.

I'm predicting that bitcoin will be at $75,000 on December 31, 2022.

Bitcoin's price will be volatile, as usual. I predict that BTC's price will trade between $40,000 and $140,000, although I would not be surprised if it does not crack $100,000 like everyone expects it will. And if it does, it won't stay up above $100,000 for months.

If someone forced me to pick a tighter trading range, I'd say $40-105k. I figure the selling pressure at $100k will be monumental and hard to overcome in 2022. I hope I'm wrong.

I predict a BTC Spot ETF will become available in the USA. It will cause a parabolic rally, and a few weeks later, it will deflate.

Increased interest rates will make people sell BTC for two reasons.

1. They will flock to less risky assets.

2. The DXY (USD Index) will increase when interest rates increase, and that's usually bad for BTC.

VERDICT: For the first time in 4 years of correctly predicting BTC's price, I was HORRIBLY WRONG! Bitcoin ended 2022 at around $16,500. A complete bloodbath! A month after making my prediction, I knew I was doomed because I had not considered the correlation between stocks & bitcoin. How could I make bearish predictions (see below) and expect bitcoin to defy them?

2. Inflation will reach 10%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflation. As flawed as it is, it's the "official" inflation number. At the end of 2021, it's about 6%.

I predict we'll have one month in 2022 that will hit nearly 1% inflation (perhaps 0.9%). Annualized, that means we'll have an inflation rate of around 10%.

VERDICT: Nearly perfect. It peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.

3. The Fed Funds Rate will quadruple

It's currently less than 0.25%.

They will have to raise it dramatically to slow inflation.

VERDICT: I had the right idea/direction, but it was more dramatic than I predicted! It went up 16 times! From 0.25% to 4.25%.

4. S&P 500 loses 5%

Ever since 2018, US stocks have done well. Even the Coronapocolypse could not stop the S&P from gaining 18% in 2020!

The bonanza will finally take a pause in 2022.

The S&P will close below 4500.

Why?

The US Fed will have to raise interest rates to stop inflation.
The Coronavirus will continue to plague humanity (the Spanish flu killed 100 million, and with all the unvaccinated, we will get more carnage).
China tumbles into a recession.
Russia and/or China could rattle their sabers, which could spook the market.

VERDICT: I was correct that we'd go negative, but I underestimated how negative. We lost nearly 20%.

5. The James Webb Telescope delivers sharp images

On Xmas 2021, the James Webb Telescope successfully launched, but we won't know until 2H 2022 whether it will deliver the sharp images that it promised.

It could easily have similar problems as the Hubble Telescope had.

The problem is that it's almost impossible to repair the Webb Telescope because it's 1 million miles away (Hubble was much closer).

So we'll be screwed if Webb fails, but I'm betting it will live up to its expectations.

VERDICT: CORRECT!

6. No flippening

Ethereum's market cap will not exceed bitcoin's in 2022, but it will get close!

VERDICT: CORRECT!

7. Ethereum ends 2022 at $5,000 due to a disappointing 2.0 execution

Ethereum 2.0 will launch in 2022, but it will be plagued with technical problems and disappointment.

Its proof-of-stake and layer-2 tech will function, but throughput will underwhelm, and security patches will happen every month as hackers exploit the system.

Just like Bitcoin will peak with the ETF, Ethereum will peak with its 2.0 launch.

VERDICT: WRONG! Ethereum ended 2022 at around $1,200. Also, the Ethereum Merge was essentially a success, although it was delayed in 2022.

8. Plan B will continue to tout his stock-to-flow model

Although Plan B repeatedly said that his doomed stock-to-flow bitcoin model would be invalidated if it failed to hit $100,000 in 2021, he changed his tune when a few weeks remained in 2021.

I predict he will continue to refuse to admit that his model has failed.

Instead, he will observe that as long as the bitcoin price is above $30,000, all is well since it can still get well above $100,000 before May 2024, when the next bitcoin halving happens.

He won't admit that his model is busted until 2025, when BTC will drop below the second standard deviation band.

VERDICT: CORRECT! He stubbornly denies that his S2F model failed. I doubt he will admit failure until 2026 when his S2F model predicts prices of near $1 million. Meanwhile, Plan B offers an ultra-precise prediction that BTC will one day be worth between $100,000 and $1 million.

9. The cumulative worldwide death toll from the Coronavirus stays below 10 million

The Spanish Flu pandemic lasted about two years and killed 25-50 million.

March 2022 is the second anniversary of the Coronapolypse, and it will have killed about 7 million by then (it's 5.5 million on January 1, 2022).

I predict the virus will begin to wane as it becomes endemic and we build herd immunity. That will cap the cumulative death toll at 10 million.

VERDICT: CORRECT! According to the WHO, about 6.6 million have died since the pandemic started until the end of 2022.

How accurate were my predictions?

If you're judging strictly, 5 out of 9 of my predictions were accurate. So that's the majority. Better than a monkey.

If you're lenient, I was correct in 7 out of 9 predictions. This gives me credit for picking the correct direction even though the magnitude was off. For example, my S&P and Fed funds rate predictions were bearish but not bearish enough.

Previous predictions

To see my previous forecasts check out my predictions for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Feedback

Give anonymous verbal feedback to this show or the podcast by using the SpeakPipe link below.

Maybe you have:

A gripe
An idea
A question

More info

If you like this, subscribe and share!

If you like this podcast, subscribe and share!

My Patrons and Gossamer Gear sponsored this show!

On social media, my username is always ftapon. Follow me on:

Claim your monthly reward by becoming a patron at http://Patreon.com/FTapon

Rewards start at just $2/month!

Affiliate links

Start your own podcast with the same company I use, Podbean, and get one month free!

https://www.podbean.com/ftapon

In the USA, trade crypto with Kraken

https://r.kraken.com/c/2226643/687189/10583

Outside the USA, trade crypto with Binance and get 5% off your trading fees!

Predictions for 2022