Today marks the 1-year anniversary of bitcoin's 3rd halving & my critique of Plan B's stock-to-flow model.
I reflect on:
- How the stock-to-flow model is holding up.
- Misunderstandings about my first S2F video.
- Who is right/wrong about the S2F model.
- A potential Bitcoin supercycle.
- Bitcoin's Achilles' Heel.
- What I think will happen in bitcoin's future.
Watch the video:
Or listen to the podcast:
Outline
00:00 Intro
00:22 1 year after the halving
02:50 I'm not a BTC bear
03:56 McAfee eating his dick
05:05 S2F has an extremely broad target
06:32 BTC Supercycle?
10:14 BTC's Achilles' Heel
12:01 Plan B Blocked Me
15:40 Price Predictions
18:45 Summary
In the chart below, you can see the incredibly broad target that bitcoin's stock-to-flow model.
In 2024, when the 4th Bitcoin halving occurs, the model predicts that the price will be between $30,000 and $400,000!
That's such a broad range that it's almost useless and it nearly guarantees that Plan B can say that his model is right.
Still, he did say that the average price of BTC will be $288,000.
Therefore, if it languishes below $288,000 between now and 2025, most people will consider that bitcoin's stock-to-flow model will be dead.
Watch my 2022 update!
In May 2022, I reflect on the stock-to-flow model's progress or lack thereof.
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DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.
