I'm often wrong. It's amazing how uncommon it is to find humans who are willing to admit that they were wrong about something. We all know that nobody is perfect and that everyone makes mistakes. However, it's stunning how rare it is to find someone who easily and regularly admits to being wrong.
Even when the evidence is irrefutable, so many people will still deny it and stubbornly cling to the idea that they were right.
At best, they will simply grumble and walk away. Humans will almost never utter these simple words, "I was wrong."
In 2017, I read a fun book called But What If We're Wrong?
I highly recommend reading the hilarious beginning of the book (which is free to sample on Amazon). The book loses steam as it progresses but the beginning is brilliant and funny.
In an effort to remind myself how wrong I can be, I will make some predictions for 2018.
Lots of people like to say, "I told you so," but they're highly selective about what they remember. "I knew Bitcoin was going to rise in 2017!" Yes, but what about all the other stupid things you predicted that didn't go well? If you're Nostradamus, why aren't you rich?
8 predictions for 2018
1) Bitcoin will finish the year lower than it started. It's about $14,500 at the end of 2017. I'm bullish for the long-term for cryptocurrencies. I bought Bitcoin when it was $250. But if 2017 was the breakout year for cryptocurrencies, 2018 will be the breakdown year. I prefer not making a more precise prediction than that. OK, fine. You want me to be wrong? I'm always happy to admit that I'm wrong. I'll guarantee that I'll be wrong by making a prediction that Bitcoin will be worth $4,444 by the end of 2018.
2) Russia will have political upheaval in the 2nd half of 2018. Putin winning streak will come to an end. Although he will still remain in power, he will face more challenges than he has ever faced. For the first time in his 20-year reign, he will have more Russians disapproving of him than approving of him.
3) Egypt will have another wave of protests. Tahir Square will make the headlines again. After spending a month in Egypt in December 2017, it seems the population is ripe for another minor uprising. But Sisi will remain in power.
4) Zimbabwe will see practically no improvement. Emmerson Mnangagwa will "win" the 2018 election by rigging it as he always did for Mugabe. The policies of the 76-year-old man will differ little from his mentor Mugabe, who will die in 2018. Zimbabwe will go nowhere. It can't get much worse, right? I'm probably wrong about that too.
5) Cyril Ramaphosa will oust the current South African president, Jacob Zuma and boldly continue the country's lackluster leadership ever since Mandela left. Although some things have improved in South Africa for the last 20 years, it has consistently disappointed most people. It won't go the way of Zimbabwe, but it will try.
6) Trump will be impeached in 2019. I know these are just 2018 predictions, but I just want to double-down on the prediction I made after Trump's first 100 days: that he would be impeached in 2019.
7) The stock market will suffer a 20% decline. The Dow Jones is around 25,000 at the end of 2017. It will revisit 20,000 in 2018.
8) A Kenyan will run a marathon in less than two hours. It's never been done before. And if it's not a Kenyan, it will be another East African.
Three personal predictions for 2018
1) I'll finish half of my book, The Unseen Africa. I really wanted to predict that I will write one chapter per week. If I did that, the book would be done by the end of 2018. However, I know that it's just unrealistic. So I predict that at least 25 chapters will be presentable to my Beta Readers.
2) I'll re-start the WanderLearn Podcast. It's been dormant for about 7 years but I'd like to restart it in 2018.
3) I'll leave Africa for the first time in over 5 years. I predict that I will visit Europe in the summer of 2018 and then in August 2018, I'll return to the USA after a 5.5-year absence. I'll see my mom for the first time in 5+ years. I'll celebrate by going to Burning Man on August 27, which is Rejoice's 26th birthday. Of course, the USA immigration may refuse Rejoice's visa in which case I'll be stuck in Africa. And I'll have the glory of admitting that I was wrong again!
What will you be wrong about in 2018?
Now it's your turn to practice saying, "I was wrong." C'mon, you can do it. Make your predictions for 2018 in the comments below so that in 2019 you can say "I was wrong!"
Of course, I suspect nobody will have the guts to make a serious prediction. People will either not make a prediction or they'll make silly or obvious predictions. Let's hope I'm wrong about that too!